Kerosene vs. Klean. Lighting up rural India: Cost and Emission Analysis

“Every block of stone has a statue inside it and it is the task of the sculptor to discover it” – Michelangelo

As of now, there are around 1.5 Billion people in the world without access to electricity grid, out ot which the share of India would come to around 400 Million people or around around 100 Million families. Majority of them live in the 80000 or so non grid connected villages in India.

They all depend mainly on Kerosene lanterns as the source of light. That makes Kerosene a very sensitive commodity in India. Kerosene is sold as a subsidized fuel in Government run ration shops for the poor people. Currently it is sold for around Rs. 12.50 per litre, but government gives around Rs.19.60 as subsidy on top of that to meet the actual open market price of around Rs. 32.00 Poor families are eligible to get around 6 lites per month at this subsidized rate.

Around 12 Billion litres of Kerosene are supplied to Ration shops annually and as much as 40% of that which is around 5 Billion litres are getting stolen to black market. The money lost by Indian government is around Rs. 10000 Crore (US$ 2.2 Billion) in subsidy itself. That gives around 7 Billion litres for the actual use.

There is another dimension for the “lost” kerosene. It is mainly used to adulterate petrol and diesel fuel. Adulterated petrol and diesel causes less mileage, higher maintenace cost, higher smoke and particulate pollution and emission.

Kerosene Usage Statistics

Summarizing Kerosene usage, Carbon Dioxide Emission and actual costs data.

Table1: Kerosene Statistics

	Usage 7 Bn Litres	Black 5 Bn Litres	Total 12 Bn Litres
Energy Content KWh	70 Bn	50 Bn	120 Bn
CO2 Emission	17.5 MMT	12.5 MMT	36 MMT
Total Cost (Rs 32.00/Litre)	INR 22400 Cr USD 5000 Mn	INR 16000 Cr USD 3560 Mn	INR 38400 Cr USD 8540 Mn
Subsidized Cost (Rs 12.50/Litre)	INR 8750 Cr USD 1950 Mn	INR 6250 Cr USD 1390 Mn	INR 15000 Cr USD 3340 Mn
Govt. Subsidy (Rs 19.60/Litre)	INR 13720 Cr USD 3050 Mn	INR 9800 Cr USD 2180 Mn	INR 23520 Cr USD 5230 Mn

* Assuming: kerosne has an energy density of 10KWh/36MJ per Litre and it produces 2.5Kg of CO2 per Litre. USD 1.00 is around INR 45.00

* CO2 emission of India is around 1800 MMT, so this figure is around 2% of that.

Kerosene Lamp Efficiency

As per a study conducted by Lawrence Berkey National Labaratories, kerosene lamps energy consumption and light output vary a lot. In fact, a lot of kerosene is evaporated through the wick without getting burnt. Typical kerosene lanterns use around 5mL to 42mL of kerosene per hour, whereas light outputs vary from around 8 Lumens to 67 Lumens. This corresponds to light efficiency of 935 Lumen.Hour/Litre to 1914 Lumen.Hour/Litre. This leads to an energy efficiency of just 0.1 to 0.2 Lumen/Watts.

As a comparison, even an average incandescent lamp which many countries want to ban is more than 50 times better than these kerosene lamps. !!!!! To put it better, kerosene lamps are the costiest and dirtiest way to generate the same light output.

Apart from wastage of fuel, other problems like smoke, safety, burning hazard, pollution etc. associated with kerosene lamps are not discussed here. Also cost of kerosene lamps, running cost to buy wicks etc. are not mentioned.

Assuming average of around 1428 Lumen.Hour/Litre of Kerosene and 7 Billion Litres of usage, the total light produces is around 10000 Billion Lumen.Hours

Table 2: Electricity requirement from a baseload plant to generate the same light

Light Source	Incandescent 10 lumens/Watt	Fluroscent 60 lumens/Watt	LED 100 lumens/Watt
Energy Usage KWh/Year	1000 Mn	166 Mn	100 Mn
Energy Usage KWh/Day	2750 x 1000	455 x 1000	275 x 1000
Constant Baseload Equivalent	114 MW	18.9 MW	11.4 MW

This tables summarizes the power requirement of Incandescent, Fluorescent and Light Emitting Diode to produce the same amount of light. Light is normally required only in the evening time for around 5 hours. So 5 times peak power requirement could be assumed during evenings, where as no power is required for the rest of the time.

That means with a power plant of 1000 MW operating in the evening for 5 hours and using standard CFL lighting, 10 times more light could be delivered to the same people. (18.9 MW x 5 x 10 times light) This is not even 1% of the electricity production capacity of India. That is around 600 lumens of light per family compared to the meager 60 lumens which a kerosene lamp could provide.

Table 3: Power produced if the same kerosene is diverted to baseload power plants

	7 Bn Litres Usage	12 Bn Litres Usage
Energy Content	70 Bn KWh	120 Bn KWh
Energy Content in MW.Year	7985 MW.Year	13689 MW.Year
Standard DG Output at 20% efficiency	1600 MW.Year	2700 MW.Year
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Output at 50% efficiency	4000 MW.Year	6800 MW.Year

This shows that the same kerosene could drive a 6800 MW Combined Cycle Gas Turbine based Power plant continuously for one year.

Using Clean Technologies for the same lighting scenario

As seen from above, to produce 10 times more light output using CFL, we require 4.55 Million KWh of electricity per day (189 MW baseload power plant equivalent).

Using Solar Photovoltaic
Being a tropcial country, India gets very good solar insolation of 5.5 KWh/m2/day or 2000KWh/m2/year average. Generating 4.55 Million KWh requires 830 MW Solar Panel. Currently solar modules are available below $2 per Watt. Maximum Power Point Trackers and inverters are available at around $0.60 per Watt and $0.75 per Watt respectively. Considering around $4 per Watt for all of these, it would lead to $3320 Million

Using Small Wind Power
With a capacity factor of 25%, the name plate capacity required to generate 189 MW of baseload power is 756 MW. Normally 2MW turbines are available at around $2 Million per MW. But small ones which generate a few KW are more expensive at around $4 per Watt. That comes to $3024 Million

Storage using Batteries
Standard Lead Acid Batteries cost around $200 per KWh. Assuming a depth of dischare of 50% it is required to have double the name plate capacity, so assuming $400 per KWh for the name plate capacity of 4.55 Million KWh, the requirement would be around $1820 Million.

Other Costs
There are many other expenditures associated like installations etc. In this case, many of them could be shared among different users. Assuming a cost of $40 associated with these, the total cost for 100 Million users would be $4000 Million.

Table 4: Summary of Clean Technology Costs

	Energy Requirement per Day	4.55 Mn KWh
Using Solar Systems	830 MW at $4.00 per Watt	$3320 Mn
Using Windpower Systems	756 MW at $4.00 per Watt	$3024 Mn
Storage Batteries	4.55 Mn KWh at $200 per KWh	$1820 Mn
Other Miscellaneous	100 Million users at $40 per user	$4000 Mn
Total Using Solar		$9140 Mn
Total using Wind		$8844 Mn

Conclusion:

To rephrase what Michelangelo said: “Money is there with the people, it is the task of the Government to reprioritize it”

References

http://www.interfaceflor.eu/internet/web.nsf/webpages/536_IN.html?OpenDocument&

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-01-30/special-report/28373372_1_kerosene-prices-ration-shops-kilolitre

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-01-27/india/28363076_1_kerosene-ration-shops-fuel-mafia

http://evanmills.lbl.gov/pubs/pdf/offgrid-lighting.pdf Table 1/Page 4

http://solarbuzz.com/facts-and-figures/retail-price-environment/module-prices

http://www.popularmechanics.com/home/improvement/energy-efficient/4321836

Edited on 26/07/2011:
I got a couple of comments about using biomass. Actually biomass gasifiers or digesters could be used to produce electricity also. One advantage of using this methods is that electricity could be generated as and when it is required. In many cases, this could be cost effective compared to solar or wind coupled with energy storage. Around 200 Million tonnes of biomass is used in India for cooking purpose itself.